GOOD MORNING.

Markets reopen this morning carrying more than a week's worth of undigested news. The March jobs report landed on Friday while every exchange in America was closed. The UN Security Council voted over the weekend on the Strait of Hormuz resolution. OPEC+ held its April 5 monthly meeting Saturday. Iran war developments continued over the holiday. All of it lands in the market at once when the opening bell rings this morning.

Before you check your account balance and make any decisions, take a breath and read this first.

The S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the first quarter of 2026, its worst quarterly performance since 2022. The Nasdaq dropped 7.1% and entered correction territory, defined as a decline of more than 10% from its most recent high.

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Those numbers can sting, particularly if you have been watching the news and already know roughly what happened. But context matters enormously here. The S&P 500 advanced 78% across three consecutive calendar years through October 2025, driven by a powerful rally in technology and growth stocks. Companies tied to AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and software led the charge, delivering returns that far outpaced the broader market. Since President Trump took office for a second time, the S&P 500 is still up 8%.

What this means is that the Q1 decline, while real and uncomfortable, is a pullback from a period of exceptional gains, not a collapse from a standing start. The pullback did not come from a single shock. Instead, it built gradually as several concerns converged at once: questions about AI valuations, reassessment of the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and then the Iran war adding another layer of anxiety to an already cautious market.

Analysts anticipated more volatility going into the long holiday weekend, and Monday's open could be eventful, with more moves than usual as investors process the accumulated news.

Here is the honest framing for a retiree or near-retiree this morning. A 4.6% quarterly decline in a diversified portfolio is meaningful, but it is not a crisis. The S&P 500 has recovered from every single major geopolitical shock in modern history. The question you should be asking is not whether markets will eventually recover. They will. The question is whether your specific situation, your income needs, your timeline, and your allocation, gives you the ability to wait for that recovery without being forced to sell at the wrong time.

Stock index futures may be the best way investors get an initial read on market reaction to the accumulated holiday news. Sunday night futures trading and today's open could be especially volatile. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, touched a session high above 27 during last Thursday's trading, reflecting how on edge investors were heading into the break. That elevated uncertainty has not been resolved by the weekend. Today's open will tell us whether the market wants to price in progress on the war, continued stalemate, or something in between. For retirees, the practical guidance is simple: do not make any large buy or sell decisions in the first hour of trading this morning, when volatility will be highest and headlines most chaotic. Wait for the session to settle before drawing any conclusions.

The April 5 OPEC+ ministerial meeting was described as the most consequential for the alliance in years, with the market pricing in a modest output increase while also watching whether Saudi Arabia and others would signal concern about demand destruction from high energy prices. OPEC+ sources had suggested the group was weighing a fresh oil output increase at the Sunday meeting, which would position key producers to add more barrels once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. However, top OPEC producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have had to cut actual output because they physically cannot export through the closed strait, meaning quota decisions are partly symbolic while the waterway stays shut. The OPEC+ result combined with any Iran war developments over the weekend will be the dominant force moving oil prices, and by extension the broader market, through the morning session.

This week brings several data releases that will add to the picture. The EIA weekly oil inventory report arrives Tuesday. The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook, which will include updated projections on how the Iran war is affecting global supply, is scheduled for release on April 7. The biggest release of the week is the official March Consumer Price Index on Thursday, April 10. That report will be the first to fully reflect war-related energy price increases during March, and it will almost certainly show a meaningful jump from February's 2.4% annual rate. Investors who entered the year focused on the prospect of interest-rate cuts are now on the fence about whether they may see a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, thanks to higher energy prices. Thursday's CPI could settle that debate in one direction or the other and move both stocks and bonds sharply.

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