Dear Reader,

“Free shipping” was the great retail bargain of the last decade—until the delivery bill started climbing again. Carriers are raising rates, surcharges remain stubborn, and retailers are adjusting the promise in quiet, practical ways.

What’s happening is cost pass-through: shipping is being priced back into the order. Why it matters is that households will feel it through higher minimums, new fees, or slower delivery. What to watch next is whether consumers accept the new rules—or shift to store pickup, bundling, and fewer small orders.

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For families, delivery isn’t a luxury line item anymore—it’s a routine expense that now shows up at checkout more often. When a retailer raises the minimum for free shipping, it nudges shoppers to spend more than planned or pay a fee. In plain terms, “free” becomes conditional, and that changes buying behavior one cart at a time.

For investors, shipping is a margin story. Retailers can discount a product once; they can’t subsidize delivery forever. When logistics costs rise, businesses either absorb the hit (lower profits) or change the shipping offer (higher thresholds, slower speeds, paid memberships).

Carriers are entering 2026 with higher published rates. FedEx says its 2026 standard list rates for U.S. package services rise an average of 5.9%, alongside changes to minimum charges and fees. The U.S. Postal Service has also filed shipping-service price changes to take effect January 18, 2026, including an average 7.8% increase for Ground Advantage and 6.6% for Priority Mail.

Retailers are preparing to respond. Deloitte’s newly published 2026 retail outlook reports that 67% of retail leaders expect to increase the threshold for free shipping as they offset rising costs. And the Postal Service’s recent plan to open more of its last-mile network to additional shippers is a reminder that the “final mile” is still the most expensive mile—and everyone is looking for ways to share it.

“Free shipping” was always a business decision, not a permanent right. As carriers raise rates and retailers tighten terms, disciplined households will win by consolidating orders, using pickup when it’s free, and treating delivery fees like any other price increase—small individually, meaningful over a year.

Stay steady,
Kenneth Boyd
Author, Finance Writer, Former Investment Advisor & CPA