As we head into the final shopping days before Christmas, U.S. consumers are still spending — but the data suggest they’re doing it with more caution than confidence. Holiday sales are tracking toward a record level, even as households juggle higher borrowing costs and persistent price pressures.

For investors, this matters because the consumer is still the engine of the U.S. economy — and Christmas shopping is one of the clearest stress tests of household finances.

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Holiday spending doesn’t just lift retailers. It reflects whether families feel secure enough to buy more than the essentials — and whether they’re paying with cash, savings, or credit.

This season, the headline outlook looks strong: the National Retail Federation expects November–December holiday sales to top $1 trillion for the first time, as stated in its 2025 forecast from the National Retail Federation. But confidence has been moving the other direction. The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in November, detailed by the Conference Board.

That gap — spending holding up while confidence slips — often signals consumers are “making it work” rather than feeling truly comfortable. In plain terms: they’ll still buy gifts, but they may cut back elsewhere in January.

The spending picture is mixed. A key read on the consumer is credit: outstanding U.S. credit-card balances hit $1.23 trillion, according to the latest Household Debt and Credit data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And borrowing isn’t cheap — Reuters notes that average credit card rates are running above 20% while delinquencies remain a growing focus, in its Dec. 4 analysis from Reuters.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s most recent Consumer Credit release shows revolving credit (which includes credit cards) is still expanding, according to the Fed’s December release from the Federal Reserve.

On the ground, the pattern looks increasingly split: higher-income shoppers continue to spend, while value-focused shoppers hunt deals and trade down — a dynamic described in a Dec. 4 report from the Wall Street Journal.

Christmas spending is telling us the economy is still standing — but many households are standing on thinner footing. Record totals can coexist with rising credit reliance and softer confidence.

For investors, the steady move is to favor financial strength over flash: companies with real cash flow, conservative balance sheets, and pricing power — and a household budget that doesn’t depend on carrying high-interest debt into the new year.

Stay steady,

Kenneth Boyd

Author, Finance Writer, Former Investment Advisor & CPA