GOOD MORNING.

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to chair the Federal Reserve, sat before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday for his confirmation hearing. Jerome Powell's term expires on May 15, so this is not a distant event. The next Fed chair will be decided in a matter of weeks, and what Warsh said Tuesday matters directly to your savings rate, your bond income, and what you pay at the pump and the grocery store.

Here are the things worth knowing.

First, Warsh came in swinging at the Fed's record. He argued the Fed's inability to return inflation to its 2% target is the result of "policy errors" made in 2021 and 2022, when officials kept interest rates at zero even as prices began rising sharply. In plain terms, he thinks the current Fed let inflation get out of hand and was too slow to fix it.

Second, he is promising a change in direction. He called for "regime change in the conduct of policy" and said the Fed needs a new "inflation framework," though he did not spell out exactly what that would look like. He also suggested that the core inflation measure the Fed currently relies on gives only a rough estimate of actual price pressures and indicated support for a more forward-looking approach to monetary policy. That is a big deal. If the formula for measuring inflation changes, it could affect when the Fed raises or cuts rates.

Elon Musk could take SpaceX public in 2026, at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation. The IPO would include Elon's AI model, Grok. But according to Louis Navellier, a radical new AI model will launch this year… over 1,000 times more powerful than Elon's. And the company behind it could outperform SpaceX in the process.

Click here for full details (including Louis' new pick — free)

Third, and most watched by markets: Warsh has a complicated history on interest rates. He was widely viewed as "hawkish" during his earlier stint at the Fed, meaning he preferred higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. More recently, he has signaled support for lower rates, suggesting that AI could help keep prices down by accelerating productivity. Markets are not sure which version of Warsh shows up if he is confirmed.

Fourth, his path to confirmation has a speed bump. Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, said he otherwise supports Warsh but will block the nomination in committee until the Justice Department drops a criminal investigation of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Republicans hold only a slim majority on that committee, so one holdout matters.

The practical takeaway: watch this confirmation closely. The next Fed chair will shape borrowing costs, savings rates, and inflation policy for years. If Warsh takes a tougher line on inflation, that is good news for your purchasing power. If he tilts toward the lower-rates path, it could squeeze income from CDs and money market accounts. Nothing is settled yet.

President Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran after markets closed Tuesday, saying the extension would last until Iran's leaders submit a "unified proposal" to end the war. Trump had said earlier in the day that he did not want to extend it. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil typically passes, remains largely closed. This matters to your wallet because oil at $90 a barrel keeps gas prices elevated and puts upward pressure on the cost of nearly everything that gets shipped or manufactured. An extension buys time, but it does not resolve the underlying dispute. Watch oil prices closely in the days ahead.

The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that U.S. retail sales for March 2026 came in at $752.1 billion, up 4.0 percent from March 2025. These figures are not adjusted for price changes. With overall consumer prices also up 3.3 percent over the same period, the real gain in what Americans are actually buying is much smaller than the headline number suggests. In plain terms, people are spending more dollars but not getting that much more in return. The shelter index continued to rise in March, and food prices remain elevated compared to a year ago. For retirees watching a fixed budget, the gap between what spending data shows and what life actually feels like at the checkout line is real, and it is exactly the problem the next Fed chair will need to address.

Earnings season is in full swing and the early picture is uneven. General Electric reported a 29 percent increase in revenue and a 25 percent jump in earnings per share, beating expectations, but its stock fell more than 6 percent as investors worried about elevated fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty. That tells you something important about this market: even good news is being met with caution right now. UnitedHealth, on the other hand, advanced sharply after delivering better-than-expected results. The divergence between strong and weak companies is widening. For income-focused investors, this is a reminder that dividend reliability matters more than headline earnings beats, especially when the economic outlook is unsettled.