GOOD MORNING.

Something remarkable happened this week on Wall Street, and it deserves a clear-eyed explanation.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time ever. On Thursday, it closed even higher, at 7,041. That may sound like just a number, but the path to get there was anything but ordinary.

Seven weeks ago, the U.S. and Israel launched military operations targeting Iran, which responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Oil prices climbed from around $59 a barrel to a peak of $117. Inflation fears returned. Stocks fell. At the lowest point, the S&P 500 was down more than 9% from its January highs.

And then, in just 11 trading days, it clawed all the way back to a new record. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group noted that this marks the fastest recovery from a decline of that size to a fresh all-time high since 1928.

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What drove the turnaround? Several things working together. A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, signed on April 7, gave investors hope that the conflict could end without a prolonged economic shock. Oil prices pulled back sharply from their peak. Then this week's bank earnings confirmed that the U.S. economy stayed healthy during the turbulence: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported profits that beat expectations. Consumer spending, at least through March, remained solid.

Oil did reverse course on Thursday, climbing back above $95 a barrel, because new reporting suggested that full peace talks between the U.S. and Iran may be more complicated than initially hoped. That remains the key risk. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires April 22, and a permanent agreement has not been reached. If talks stall and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, oil prices could climb again and inflation concerns would resurface.

For retirees, the week offered a genuine reason for encouragement. If you own a diversified mix of stocks, your portfolio has likely recovered meaningfully from the March decline. The lesson the market offered this week is one it has offered before: staying calm and staying invested during geopolitical shocks has historically served long-term investors better than reacting to headlines. That said, oil and the Iran negotiation timeline deserve continued attention. The next few weeks will go a long way toward determining whether this rally holds.

After falling sharply earlier this week on hopes for a quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil climbed back above $95 a barrel on Thursday. New reports indicated that negotiations may be more narrowly focused on securing a temporary extension of the ceasefire rather than a broader peace agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire expires April 22. For retirees, the direction of oil over the next two weeks matters directly: it affects gasoline prices, heating costs, and the broader inflation picture that shapes Federal Reserve policy. A deal that reopens the strait would likely push oil significantly lower. A breakdown could send it higher again.

Netflix reported strong first-quarter results after Thursday's close, with revenue rising 16% to $12.25 billion and earnings per share nearly doubling versus a year ago. But two things hit the stock hard in after-hours trading, sending it down roughly 8% to 9%. First, the company's guidance for the second quarter came in below what Wall Street expected on both revenue and earnings. Second, Netflix announced that co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings, who built the company from a mail-order DVD service into a global streaming giant over 29 years, will step down from the board in June. Investors often react cautiously when a founding leader exits. The stock's reaction is worth watching Friday morning.

Two Federal Reserve officials, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, are scheduled to speak publicly on Friday. Markets will pay close attention to their tone on interest rates. Right now, traders see almost no chance of a rate cut before December, and some are not pricing in any cuts at all for 2026. That matters for retirees because rates on savings accounts, money market funds, and CDs are directly tied to the Fed's policy. As long as rates stay elevated, those vehicles remain attractive. Any signal that the Fed is considering holding rates even longer because of the Iran-related inflation pressures would likely push yields higher.

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