GOOD MORNING.

Wednesday was a big day for your portfolio. The Dow posted its best single-day gain since April 2025, stocks rose sharply, and oil prices fell hard after the White House announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal included a promise from Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. Markets responded with a genuine sigh of relief.

Thursday told a more complicated story.

Iran's new Supreme Leader posted comments suggesting the ceasefire may not last, warning that those who attacked Iran would not go unpunished. Meanwhile, the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said plainly: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled."

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That language matters for your wallet. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose more than 3% on Thursday to settle at $97.87 per barrel, recovering a big chunk of what it gave back Wednesday. At one point during the session, oil touched $100 again.

Here is the direct connection to your household budget: when oil stays near $100 a barrel, gasoline prices stay elevated. Heating oil and propane stay expensive. Groceries cost more, because almost every product in a grocery store gets trucked or shipped using diesel. If you are on a fixed income, higher energy costs eat into every dollar you have.

Stocks still finished higher on Thursday, extending their winning streak to seven consecutive sessions, with the S&P 500 up 0.62% and the Dow turning positive for the year. That is genuinely good news for anyone with retirement savings in stocks. But the same market session told a cautionary tale. The rally was unsteady, with the major indexes dipping into the red early in the day before recovering after Israel agreed to hold talks with Lebanon.

A full resolution is not in sight. Analysts at Yardeni Research noted that a two-week pause is not a resolution and that financial markets will remain sensitive to any breakdown in talks.

The practical takeaway for you: do not let this week's stock gains lull you into ignoring the energy picture. Oil near $100 means elevated inflation pressures will likely persist. That matters for Social Security's purchasing power, for bond yields, and for the timeline of any Fed rate cuts you may be counting on.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, showed a 3% annualized reading for February, meeting expectations. On a 12-month basis, overall PCE rose 2.8%, while core PCE has been running above 4.5% annualized over the most recent three months. That pace is too hot for the Fed to consider rate cuts without risking a second inflation wave. Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 25% chance of even one rate cut by year-end. If inflation stays sticky, certificates of deposit and money market yields will remain attractive, but a hoped-for drop in mortgage or auto loan rates will be slow to arrive.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 4 came in at 219,000, above the expected 210,000 and up from the prior week's 203,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.79 million, below economist expectations. The slight uptick in new claims is worth watching but is not yet alarming. The labor market has held up reasonably well through the Iran conflict, and a strong job market generally supports consumer spending, which benefits corporate earnings and stock prices. If claims start rising consistently, that would be an early signal that the economy is softening, and the Fed would be more likely to cut rates in response.

Vice President JD Vance is leading a U.S. delegation to Islamabad this weekend for direct talks with Iran, with some hope that the ceasefire can be formalized into something more durable. However, shipping and supply chains take time to recover even once a deal is struck, and any renewed disruption of the strait could send crude prices right back up. For retirees holding energy stocks, which have surged roughly 34% in 2026 according to market data, a successful peace deal could bring a sharp pullback in those positions. Consider that risk alongside the gains.