GOOD MORNING.

Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, the rest of the world's major democracies have largely watched from the sidelines. That changed Thursday.

The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada issued a joint statement Thursday saying they were ready to join appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and would take steps to stabilize energy markets. Canada joined after the initial statement was published, bringing the total to seven nations.

The statement condemned, in the strongest terms, recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait by Iranian forces. The nations called on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks, and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.

The announcement came amid rising concerns over turbulent markets, with European natural gas prices having jumped by 60% since the start of the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply on a normal day. At least 20 vessels have been attacked in the area since the conflict began. Iran has warned it could target ships attempting to pass through the strait if attacks on its territory continue.

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The statement matters for your money for one clear reason: the energy shock driving up oil prices, inflation, and interest rates is entirely a function of that closed waterway. If the coalition succeeds in restoring safe passage, oil prices fall, inflation cools, and the Federal Reserve gains room to cut interest rates. If it fails, the pressure on your purchasing power and fixed income continues.

There is an important caution to absorb here. The statement did not provide details on how the nations would contribute or the extent to which they would be willing to commit resources. There is a meaningful difference between signing a statement and deploying naval assets. Earlier this week, leaders from several of these same countries had declined to commit to any military role. The reversal is real progress, but the practical follow-through remains to be seen.

For retirees and income investors, this is the most important diplomatic development since the war began. A credible multinational escort mission would change the calculus for commercial shippers. Oil traders are watching. Bond markets are watching. The Fed is watching. If the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens over the coming weeks, nearly every financial headache you have dealt with since the war began begins to ease.

Gold hit its lowest level since early February on Thursday as prices continued to fall amid global inflation fears. The metal was down about 10% week to date, on pace for its worst week since February 1983, when it fell more than 12%. The selloff is counterintuitive during a war but has a clear cause: the oil shock is keeping interest rates elevated, and elevated rates make income-paying assets more attractive than gold, which pays nothing. Friday's session is extending those losses. For retirees who hold gold as an inflation hedge, the long-term case for the metal has not changed. But this week is a useful reminder that no single asset behaves the way you expect in every environment, and that diversification across income-producing assets remains essential.

S&P 500 futures slid as stock futures fell on Friday morning as oil prices resumed their rally following a brief move lower. If the index closes lower Friday, it will mark four consecutive weeks of losses, a streak that has not happened in roughly two years. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio now sits at 20.9, slightly below the peak of 22 earlier this year but still above the five-year average of 20. If oil remains elevated and there is no progress toward ending the war, analysts and the companies they follow might start lowering guidance. Thursday's coalition statement is the kind of development that could interrupt that streak if it leads to real action on the Strait. In the meantime, energy and utility stocks have held up best, while technology and financials have borne the brunt of the selling.

With markets now discounting any interest rate cuts in 2026, strategists at Macquarie believe the Federal Reserve's next move will be in the opposite direction. The firm said the base case remains that the Fed will stay on hold in coming months, with no additional cuts on the horizon, and that they see the next move as a hike, though they have pushed out that timing to the first half of 2027. Macquarie is an outlier, and most forecasters still expect at least one cut this year. But the fact that a reputable firm is publicly forecasting a rate hike tells you how much the inflation picture has changed since January. For retirees, the implication is direct: bond prices will remain under pressure, and the income you earn from money market funds and short-term CDs is likely to stay elevated well into next year.