Dear Reader,

When the job market cools, most people watch layoffs. But many employers tighten labor costs in quieter ways first—cutting overtime, trimming schedules, and reducing hours before they ever cut headcount.

In the January 9, 2026 jobs report for December 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the average private-sector workweek at 34.2 hours, down from 34.3 in November—small on paper, but real money over a month. For investors and households alike, the next thing to watch is whether “stable employment” masks a slowdown in weekly pay.

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Overtime is where many families create breathing room. It covers the surprise car repair, the winter utility bill, or the groceries that cost more than they did a few years ago. When those extra hours vanish, households can feel squeezed even if their hourly wage hasn’t changed.

In plain terms: a job can stay “secure,” but the paycheck can still shrink.

The BLS detail tables show that in manufacturing, the workweek held around 40.0 hours and overtime was 2.9 hours in December—steady, but not expanding. That “no growth in hours” backdrop matters because many businesses prefer to manage demand by reducing hours and overtime before they take the reputational and operational hit of layoffs.

Other fresh indicators point to the same caution. Reuters reported that job openings fell to a 14-month low and hiring remained sluggish—evidence that companies are growing more selective about labor needs. And in manufacturing, the ISM Employment Index remained in contraction territory in December, consistent with firms keeping staffing—and hours—tight.

For investors, this is a reminder that consumer strength can soften without a dramatic unemployment spike. Fewer overtime shifts across enough households can cool spending quietly, and that tends to show up later in earnings guidance—especially for retailers, restaurants, and other “everyday” businesses.

A shrinking workweek is an early warning sign—not a headline, but a signal. The practical response is preparation: keep a real cash cushion, reduce high-interest debt, and favor businesses that can hold margins without constant growth in consumer demand.

Stay steady,
Kenneth Boyd
Author, Finance Writer, Former Investment Advisor & CPA