GOOD MORNING.

Wall Street closed out a rough first quarter with a powerful rally on Tuesday. The Dow rose more than 1,100 points and the S&P 500 gained nearly 3%. It was the best single day for stocks since last May. The reason: unconfirmed reports that Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is willing to end the war with the United States and Israel under certain conditions. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he would consider winding down the military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed.

That is a big deal. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes, and the war with Iran has made it the most dangerous chokepoint on earth. The conflict, which began in late February, has been the central force pulling markets lower all month. Oil prices nearly doubled from around $70 a barrel before the fighting started to well above $100. That surge drove gasoline above $4 a gallon nationwide for the first time since 2022, and it raised the threat of a new round of inflation hitting every American who drives a car, heats a home, or buys groceries.

CNBC called this new Elon Musk opportunity “the big market event of 2026.”

The New York Times predicted it “will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street.”

And Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here.

That turns $100 into $100,000…

$500 into half a million dollars…

And a tiny stake of $1,000 into $1 million.

Simply put…

This could be the best investment opportunity of the decade. 

Today's peace signals reversed some of that fear. Oil pulled back toward $101 a barrel. Treasury yields declined, which is good for bonds. Stocks surged broadly, with technology names leading the way.

So what does this mean for you? If you are retired or close to it, today's bounce is welcome. But it does not change the bigger picture. The S&P 500 still ended the first quarter down 5.3%, its worst quarterly performance in years. Gas prices remain high. The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady and is unlikely to cut anytime soon, because it is watching to see whether the oil shock feeds through into broader inflation. A genuine peace deal that fully reopens the strait would be the most important financial development of the year. Until that happens, stay patient, stick to your plan, and do not mistake one good day for a solved problem.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly job openings report today, covering February. There were 6.88 million open positions, down from about 6.95 million the prior month and slightly below expectations. More telling: workers quit their jobs at the lowest rate since August 2020. When people stop voluntarily leaving their jobs, it usually means they feel less confident about finding something better, a sign of a cooling labor market. This matters for retirees because a weaker job market reduces pressure on wages, which in turn reduces one source of inflation. The bigger jobs picture comes Friday, April 3, when the March employment report is released on Good Friday, when markets are closed. Traders will react on Monday.

The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index came in at 91.8 for March, a modest improvement from February and better than forecasters expected. However, the reading is still well below levels seen before the Iran war began. The expectations component, which measures how people feel about the next six months, slipped to 70.9. Historically, readings below 80 on that measure have sometimes preceded recessions. Consumers are not panicking, but they are worried. For retirees who depend on stable spending in the broader economy to support dividend-paying stocks and real estate investments, consumer sentiment is worth watching closely in the months ahead.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that interest rate policy is in a good place given the current environment and that the Fed intends to wait and watch how the energy shock plays out. Markets have largely stopped pricing in rate cuts for 2026. As recently as a few weeks ago, traders were speculating the Fed might actually raise rates to fight oil-driven inflation. That scenario has faded somewhat after Powell's comments, but cuts are clearly off the table for now. For retirees, this is a mixed picture. Money market accounts, short-term CDs, and Treasury bills continue to offer decent yields in the 4% to 5% range. Staying shorter on bond maturities remains a sensible approach until the inflation picture clears.