Dear Reader,

Headline inflation has cooled, but the bills that feel “non-negotiable” are still climbing—especially insurance. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI rose 2.7% over the 12 months ending November 2025, down from earlier peaks.

Yet homeowners, drivers, and small business owners are facing renewal notices that don’t match that calmer inflation picture. The reason is straightforward: insurance prices reflect losses and future risk, not last month’s grocery receipt.

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For families, higher premiums act like a quiet tax on homeownership and mobility. When insurance jumps, households often respond by raising deductibles, trimming coverage, or shopping for the cheapest option—steps that can leave them exposed when a major claim hits.

For small businesses, it’s even more direct. Commercial property, auto, and liability coverage often sit behind a lender covenant, a lease, or a client contract. When premiums rise, cash flow tightens—and expansion plans get delayed.

In plain terms: insurers are pushing more risk and more cost back onto the people who can least absorb a surprise.

Catastrophe losses remain a major driver. Swiss Re estimates $107 billion in insured natural-catastrophe losses in 2025—marking the sixth straight year above $100 billion.

And even when reinsurance pricing softens at the margin, it doesn’t instantly translate into cheaper policies. Moody’s expects property-cat reinsurance pricing to fall around 15% at the January 1, 2026 renewals, but outcomes vary by region and peril. Insurers are still rebuilding capital after years of heavy losses.

There’s also the legal-cost problem. A Triple-I/CAS analysis argues that “legal system abuse” has driven liability insurance losses by more than $230 billion over the past decade, well beyond normal economic inflation.

Finally, strained “backstop” markets can spill into private premiums. Reuters reports that as disaster exposure rises, FAIR plans can become stressed and the costs can ultimately be passed back through the system—showing up in higher premiums for broader pools of policyholders.

Insurance isn’t a luxury—it’s a stability tool. The smart move is to control what you can: shop early, compare coverage terms (not just the price), raise deductibles only to levels your cash reserves can handle, and reduce preventable risk around your home or business.

Preparedness beats prediction—especially when the bill is due every month.

Stay steady,

Kenneth Boyd

Author, Finance Writer, Former Investment Advisor & CPA