GOOD MORNING.

The biggest inflation concern on Wall Street this week was a number from the government's wholesale price report, and iit came in much better than almost anyone expected.

The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures what businesses pay for goods and services before prices reach consumers. Economists polled by Dow Jones had braced for a 1.1% monthly increase in March, reflecting the energy shock caused by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI rose just 0.5% for the month. More importantly, the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.1% against a forecast of 0.5%. The services side of the economy, a category closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was flat for the entire month.

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Here is why that matters to you directly. Since fighting broke out in the Middle East in late February, oil prices had climbed from roughly $59 a barrel to as high as $117, as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil supply, became restricted by the conflict. Higher energy costs filter into almost everything else: trucking, manufacturing, food packaging, utilities. Investors feared that March's price data would show those costs spreading rapidly through the economy.

They did not, at least not yet. Gasoline prices at the wholesale level rose 15.7% in March, and diesel fuel advanced sharply. But outside of energy, businesses largely held the line on prices. That is encouraging because it suggests the energy shock, while painful, had not yet triggered a broader wave of inflation.

The practical takeaway: this morning's report gave markets room to breathe. If oil prices continue to retreat as the conflict edges toward resolution, the path of annual inflation may improve meaningfully in the months ahead. Until then, energy remains the wild card in every price report, and that means keeping a close eye on how the Middle East situation develops over the coming weeks.

JPMorgan Chase reported strong first-quarter results Tuesday, earning $5.94 per share against an estimate of $5.45, with revenue rising 10% to $50.5 billion. Trading revenue hit a record $11.6 billion as volatility in global markets drove heavy activity. However, the bank's stock slipped after management trimmed its full-year forecast for net interest income, a key measure of how much the bank earns on loans, from $104.5 billion down to $103 billion. Net interest income is essentially the spread between what banks earn on loans and what they pay depositors. When that number gets trimmed, it can signal a gradual easing of income for bank-stock investors who own shares for dividends. Wells Fargo's results were mixed, with earnings slightly topping estimates but revenue falling short. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined nearly 8% on Tuesday, its largest single-day drop in weeks, after reports emerged that Pakistan is working to arrange a second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations before the current two-week truce expires. President Trump confirmed Iran had reached out to Washington, and Iranian President Pezeshkian expressed willingness to resume talks. Oil peaked above $117 a barrel in mid-March when the Strait of Hormuz was most severely restricted. It has since pulled back meaningfully. For retirees, lower oil prices are good news on two fronts: they reduce inflation pressure at the gas pump and in the grocery store, and they tend to ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated.

Kevin Warsh, tapped by President Trump to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, filed financial disclosures ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing. Warsh, a former Fed governor who served during the 2008 financial crisis, is widely seen as likely to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in only modest rate relief in 2026, with just a 30% probability of even one cut by December. That matters to retirees who are watching CD and savings rates, which remain tied closely to the Fed's policy direction. Higher rates have been a genuine benefit for savers over the past two years, and any signal from Warsh about his approach to inflation will be closely watched when his confirmation hearings begin.